Petrol prices could reach N1411 per litre in November

Petrol prices in Lagos could reach N1,411 per litre in November if current freight, insurance and other import-related premiums remain unchanged. Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, said the forecast reflects the cost of delivering physical cargoes, which has risen above futures contract prices. However, some petroleum marketers have dismissed the projected increase as speculative, arguing that crude oil prices have not risen further and that they are not currently planning to increase pump prices.

Petrol prices in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector are influenced by crude oil costs, exchange rates, import financing and other market factors. Supplies delivered outside Lagos also attract additional charges of N100 per litre for insurance and truck freight, as well as N40 per litre for throughput, according to supplied industry estimates. In an exclusive chat with Nairametrics, Emmanuel said insurance premiums, freight charges and the dated Brent spread were major factors driving the projected increase in petrol prices. He explained that these costs had made physical cargo deliveries about $30 more expensive than futures contracts.

Cost Breakdown and Dangote Pricing

Breaking down his estimate for November deliveries, Emmanuel said he calculated the landing cost using a crude oil delivery cost of $145.60, plus $1.21 in NIMASA and NPA levies and tariffs. Emmanuel said the projection would apply if the relevant premiums remained at their current levels for November deliveries. He added that Dangote Refinery prices its products against import parity because it sources about 40% of its feedstock internationally. According to Emmanuel, domestic crude supplies under the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation also carry freight costs of $9 to $12 per barrel, alongside third-party premiums for operators with lifting agreements involving third-party traders.

He argued that prices commonly cited online could be about 30% lower than the actual cost of landing physical cargoes, whether through imports or domestic crude allocations. He also identified the global Platts pricing system and commercial refineries as major influences on petrol prices. The National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, described reports of a possible increase as speculative, saying crude oil prices had not risen further. He maintained that marketers were not considering an increase at the time, noting that petrol was already selling for around N1,400 per litre in some parts of the country. Ukadike also pointed to developments involving feedstock supplies and political events in the United States and Israel as factors that could influence the outlook for fuel prices.

Marketers React to Market Conditions

Similarly, the National Publicity Secretary of PETROAN, Joseph Obele, expressed doubt about a further increase, saying the Middle East conflict appeared to be easing and crude oil prices were declining. Another independent oil marketer, Isa Alheri, said petrol prices could nevertheless rise above N1,400 per litre, depending on market conditions. He explained that prices were influenced by the exchange rate, international crude oil prices, refined product prices, import financing costs, freight and insurance premiums. Alheri said that under the deregulated market, marketers might have to adjust their selling prices when import costs rise to avoid selling below replacement cost.

In July 2026, oil marketers accused major fuel importers of pricing imported petrol at about N1,350 per litre, significantly above the price offered by Dangote Petroleum Refinery. According to him, international Platts pricing for imported petroleum products was about 20% higher than prices offered by Dangote Refinery, making imports less competitive. He opposed what he described as the indiscriminate issuance of import licences, warning that it could ultimately lead to higher petrol prices for consumers.